In 1978, Jeff Bell didn't even register in polls vs. Clifford Case
By Wally EdgeFrank Lautenberg’s 35-point lead over Rob Andrews in the race for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination is substantial, but that doesn’t mean the 84-year-old incumbent will coast to victory in the June 3 primary. Back in 1978, the last time an incumbent Senator faced a serious primary challenge, an Eagleton/Rutgers poll conducted just two weeks before the Republican primary was good news for four-term Senator Clifford Case. Only 3% of voters were able to identify his rival, Jeff Bell, and by a 43%-8% margin, felt that Case would make the better Senator. Bell won by 3,473 votes – a 51%-49% margin.
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Then Jeff Bell lost the seat!
This is a bad memory for us Republicans.
Looking at 2000...
Florio (the South candidate like Andrews) won most of the South and a few other spots. Lautenberg wont have the same backing in Bergen, Hudson and Essex as Corzine because of party fissures.
I'd expect Andrews to carry southwest Bergen and a lot of North Hudson, plus Bloomfield, Belleville and the North Ward of Newark. That'll almost even out those three big Democratic prizes. This could create a 5-6% shift statewide to Andrews.
If Middlesex switches from the North to the South candidate, expect a 2% gain for Andrews. It would be good for Andrews to pick up Shirley Turner in Mercer she actually was a big help to Obama.
I'd say at that point a 58-42 race becomes a 50-50 race. Then, throw in that Cresitello could break double-digits in Morris and Sussex with the few Democrats there are and things get REAL interesting.
Bell v. Case
I think polling has come a long way since 1978 (Hillary in N.H. being an exception). I have a hard time believing Bell went from 3% name i.d. to 51% of the vote in 2 weeks. That's insane!
Agree w/ Sewaren....the party fissures in Essex, Hudson, Bergen negate the huge pluralities Frank would need to run up in the North. If Andrews blows him out in S.J., he has a real shot if he can stay close in the North.
This is a competitive race.
Lautenberg has real problems in all the southern counties as well as the swing counties of Somerset, Hunterdon, Monmouth and Mercer counties.
Outside of Hudson, Warren, Pasaic, Morris and maybe Sussex counties, where is Lautenberg's support?
He might have pocket support in Jewish communities like Teaneck, Englewood, Montclair and others, but he's going into this primary losing Cape May, salem, Camden, Gloucester, Burlington and probably Ocean counties.
He'll have problems in Essex as well as Middlesex, and for a guy has been in the US Senate for 25 years, maybe it's time he did step aside.
Finally, how does Lautenberg in Newark, Trenton or Jersey City? How does an 84-year old campaign against a guy half his age?
Vote Column "A" - All the way!
A Temporary Fix Gone Awry
Lautenberg was simply supposed to placehold, but no one knew he loved being el senador SO much.
The reality is that the other six congressman are simply a bit disingenuous when they endorse, because we know particularly Rothman and Holt want the job and are better served by Lautenberg stepping aside. Andrews must have been told that Corzine would not appoint him, and rather than challenging Corzine, Andrews felt Lautenberg was ripe for the picking,
Right now I see this race playing like 2000 but with Passaic endorsing the North candidate but the South candidate counteracting by picking off key endorsements (Sarlo, Stack, Adubato) in northern counties. How much of this is anger at Frank's well-known prickly personality is an interesting thought.
By the way I wouldn't be shocked if Sarlo runs against Rothman. Ferriero may be playing timid for now but this Congressman has crossed him one too many times.