Rick Merkt

Democrats think today's Quinnipiac gubernatorial poll indicates that Gov. Jon Corzine is well on his way to being understood and embraced by the electorate after making several unpopular and tough, but necessary decisions.

Republicans see the poll as demonstrating lackluster support for the Corzine, considering he's spent a combined $100 million on his two previous statewide races, and early enthusiasm for U.S. Attorney Chris Christie's potential candidacy among those who have heard of him.

Meanwhile, non-partisan political analysts see the poll as a wash, with promising and troubling results for both Corzine and U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, who is viewed as a likely gubernatorial candidate.

Corzine leads Christie in the poll, 42% to 36%, although only 37% of voters think Corzine deserves to be reelected and his approval rating remains net negative. Christie remains a relative unknown, with only 30% of respondents knowing enough about him to form an opinion.

Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic State Chairman, said that's the number that caught his attention. Despite dozens of positive front page headlines about his indictments and convictions of prominent public officials since he was sworn in, 70% of voters still barely know anything about him.

On top of that, although Corzine still has a net negative approval rating, he's improved significantly since the last Quinnipiac poll in September.

Gov. Jon Corzine continues to struggle to win the approval of New Jersey voters
Voters' feelings on Gov. Jon Corzine remain tepid, although they've slightly improved, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released this morning.

Corzine’s approval rating stands at 45%, while 39% of respondents disapprove of the way he’s handled his job. 17% are unsure or mixed. 40% of voters have a favorable opinion of the Governor, while 43% are unfavorable.

Only 23% of voters think the state is heading in the right direction – the same number that FDU found last month.

Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Medham) is thinking about running for Governor in 2009.
Assemblyman Richard Merkt (R-Randolph) intends to discuss the first steps of his gubernatorial campaign on Wednesday in front of the Church of St. Joseph on West Main Street in Mendham at 8 a.m.

Two weeks ago, Merkt told PolitickerNJ.com that he would not seek re-election to the Assembly next year so he could focus on a run for governor.

The 2009 gubernatorial campaign in underway in St. Paul, where two of the four potential candidates for Governor have a visible presence among Republican Party leaders attending the convention.  Biotech millionaire John Crowley sponsored a booze cruise down the Mississippi River last night – the first opportunity for many New Jersey Republicans to see the guy who teased them with a potential U.S. Senate candidate last spring.   And while U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie is not permitted to attend political events, his brother, Wall Street millionaire Todd Christie, has been working the delegation seeming support for 2009.  Former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan is not attending the convention (his most likely support won’t come from establishment Republicans who traveled to St. Paul), and there has not yet been a spotting of the fourth candidate in that race, Assemblyman Rick Merkt.

Rick Merkt's announcement that he won't seek re-election to a seventh term in the State Assembly next year - possibly to run for Governor - will create a chain reaction that will reach the local level. Four Freeholders are considered potential candidates for the solidly Republican District 25 seat, and three of them - John Murphy, Gene Feyl, Bill Chegwidden - would have to give up their Freeholder seats to run for the Legislature in 2009. That would create another hotly contested primary for open Freeholder seats. If Doug Cabana were to win the Assembly seat, Morris County Republicans would need to hold a January 2010 special election convention to replace him.

If Rick Merkt and Chris Christie both wind up in the race for the 2009 Republican nomination for Governor, it will be the first time in 28 years that two former running mates and two candidates from the same small town compete in a statewide primary.  Merkt and Christie, who live in Mendham, ran as a team in the 1995 State Assembly primary in District 25; they lost to incumbent Anthony Bucco and newcomer Michael Patrick Carroll, who was seeking the open seat of retiring Assemblyman Arthur Albohn.   Merkt went to the Assembly two years later when Bucco ran for the State Senate.

If Rick Merkt gives up his State Assembly seat to run for Governor next year, there will most definitely be a long list of Republicans interested in seeking the open seat in the 25th district. Possible candidates include: attorney Anthony Bucco, Jr., the son of the incumbent State Senator; Morris County Freeholder John Murphy, who ran for Governor in 2005; Freeholder Douglas Cabana, who unsuccessfully challenged Merkt and incumbent Michael Patrick Carroll in 2003; Freeholders Bill Chegwidden and Gene Feyl; and Mount Arlington Mayor Art Ondish. Another possible candidate is former Freeholder John Inglesino, who lost the 1997 GOP primary to Merkt by less than 250 votes. But Inglesino is actively involved in Chris Christie’s campaign for Governor and might not want to take time away from that effort.

One hint on U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie’s political ideology comes from his 1995 campaign for the State Assembly, when he attacked two other candidates, Anthony Bucco and Michael Patrick Carroll, for supporting a repeal of the ban on assault weapons. A reader sent PolitickerNJ.com a copy of the mailer from that campaign after Matt Friedman’s story on conservatives wanting to know where the federal prosecutor stands on some state issues.

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