Louis Kosco

When Joseph Ferriero wrestled the county chairmanship from Gerald Calabrese in June 1998, Bergen County Republicans had a 7-0 majority on the Board of Freeholders, and Republicans in the offices of County Executive, County Clerk, and Sheriff.  The only countywide Democratic official was Michael Dressler, who had won election as Surrogate in 1996.  Republicans held three of the five State Senate seats, and eight of ten State Assembly seats that included parts of Bergen County.

In a campaign largely engineered through Ferriero's strategic and fundraising skills, Democrats scored an upset victory in November '98.  Joseph Ciccone ousted GOP Acting Sheriff Jay Alpert, and Dennis McNerney and Douglas Bern were elected Freeholder.  (Barbara Chadwick, a Freeholder for twenty years, was re-elected, as was County Executive William "Pat" Schuber, who defeated Assemblywoman Loretta Weinberg, and County Clerk Kathleen Donovan.)  Ciccone gave Ferriero some of the patronage he needed to build a county organization. And the Freeholder Board moved from 7-0 to 5-2.

Since the Bergen County-based 38th legislative district was created, every State Senator has eventually failed to win re-election. Republican Frederick Wendel, elected in 1971, lost to Democrat John Skevin in 1973. Skevin was defeated by Republican John Paolella in 1981, and Paolella was ousted by Democrat Paul Contillo in 1983. Contillo was unseated by Republican Louis Kosco in 1991, and Kosco lost in 2001 to Democrat Joseph Coniglio. Coniglio dropped his bid for a third term after the 2007 primary after published reports that he was the target of a federal criminal probe.  He was indicted last week.

It might not be a coincidence that the last three state Senators from district 38 have been from Paramus.

There was Paul Contillo, then Louis Kosco, and finally Joseph Coniglio.

Now, two of the four contenders for the position are from Paramus – Mayor James Tedesco and Bergen County Freeholder Connie Wagner (who, unlike the other three, has not yet declared an intention to run for the seat).

Reports today that State Senator Joseph Coniglio is the target of a federal criminal investigation raises the specter of the Curse of the 38th: each of Coniglio's predecessors ultimately ended their political careers by losing campaigns for re-election to the State Senate. The district was created for the 1973 election, when Democrat John Skevin unseated Republican Senator Fred Wendel. Skevin was defeated eight years later by Republican John Paolella ). Paolella lost his seat after one term to Democrat Paul Contillo . Contillo beat Louis Kosco in 1987, but lost his seat to Kosco in the 1991 Republican landslide. Kosco held the seat for ten years before falling to Coniglio in 2001, after redistricting added two heavily Democratic towns -- Fair Lawn and Fort Lee -- to the 38th.

As State Senator Joseph Coniglio's problems continue to mount, consider the Curse of the 38th:  each of Coniglio's predecessors ultimately ended their political careers by losing campaigns for re-election to the State Senate. The district was created for the 1973 election, when Democrat John Skevin unseated Republican Senator Fred Wendel. Skevin was defeated eight years later by Republican John Paolella ). Paolella lost his seat after one term to Democrat Paul Contillo . Contillo beat Louis Kosco in 1987, but lost his seat to Kosco in the 1991 Republican landslide. Kosco held the seat for ten years before falling to Coniglio in 2001, after redistricting added two heavily Democratic towns -- Fair Lawn and Fort Lee -- to the 38th.

Two more polls showing the contentious race for United States Senate remains close: a WNBC-TV Zogby poll has Tom Kean, Jr. leading Bob Menendez by a 42%-37% margin, and a Mason-Dixon MSNBC-McClathy poll has Menendez leading, 41%-41%. The consensus among several key Democratic officials is that, despite intense speculation, Menendez has no intention of dropping his bid for a full six-year term. Menendez continues to be emboldened by these close polls that come despite several allegations of ethical problems connected to him. For Republicans, that seems to be just fine. The GOP doesn't want another switcheroo and strongly prefer Menendez's continued candidacy; Kean does not want to suddenly find himself in a campaign against Richard Codey or Rob Andrews.

Several Bergen County Republican leaders report that Gerald Cardinale has them that he wants just one more term in the State Senate. The 72-year-old Cardinale plans to seek re-election in 2007 and then retire four years later. Cardinale was elected to the Assembly in 1979 and won a Senate seat in 1981 when he defeated Democratic incumbent Frank Herbert. He lost primaries for Governor in 1989 and Congress in 2002.

Cardinale's district may be the site of a hotly contested primary for State Assembly next year, where some Bergen Republicans have threatened challengers to longtime incumbents John Rooney (elected in 1983) and Charlotte Vandervalk (elected in 1991). If Cardinale does intend to make his next campaign his last, the '07 Assembly primary could determine who the next State Senator will be.

And if State Senator Henry McNamara, also 72, retires before 2011 -- and if his seat is filled by Assemblyman Kevin O'Toole of Essex County -- then Cardinale's seat could be the only one held by a Bergen County Republican in the next decade.

Footnote: Ten years ago, Bergen County Republicans held four State Senate seats: John Scott in the 36th, Louis Kosco in the 38th, Cardinale and McNamara.

Since the Bergen County-based 38th legislative district was created, every State Senator has eventually lost re-election. Republican Frederick Wendel, elected in 1971, lost to Democrat John Skevin in 1973. Skevin was defeated by Republican John Paolella in 1981, and Paolella was ousted by Democrat Paul Contillo in 1983. Contillo was unseated by Republican Louis Kosco in 1991, and Kosco lost in 2001 to Democrat Joseph Coniglio. The district was viewed as politically competitive until '01 redistricting, when heavily Democratic Fair Lawn and Fort Lee were added to the 38th. Coniglio, who had been viewed as a possible candidate for the state Board of Public Utilities earlier this year, seems to be in strong shape to break the curse, but then again, so did Contillo (when he beat Kosco in 1987), and Kosco, who held the job for ten years. Possible Republican Senate candidates in 2007 include Hasbrouck Heights Mayor Ronald Jones , the Director of Security for Hackensack Medical Center, and Paramus Councilman Keith Zakheim, who must first win re-election next year.

If Democrat Valerie Huttle wins election to the State Assembly next month, she will become the first legislator in 38 years to win a first term in the lower house after previously running for the State Senate. The last time it happened was in 1967, when Republican William Schluter won an Assembly seat two years after losing a Senate race to the incumbent, Sido Ridolfi. Huttle ran a strong campaign against GOP Senator Louis Kosco in 1997.