Jim Saxton

If Republicans can't beat John Adler in 2010, chances are they never will.  If Adler wins a second term, watch for mapmakers to take take some heavily Republican Ocean County towns out of his district when new congressional districts are drawn for the 2012 elections.  Adler scored a 52%-48% victory last week over Republican Christopher Myers for the seat of retiring twelve term U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton -- a seat Democrats hadn't won since 1882.

Republican insiders say that Myers isn't likely to get a second shot at the seat, and that the favorite candidate could be former major league baseball pitcher Al Leiter.  Leiter, a Toms River native who has said he wants to run for office someday, has turned down several offers to seek U.S. Senate and House seats in recent years.  Other possible Adler opponents include: State Sen. Diane Allen (who must first heal wounds in a very fractured Burlington County Republican organization); State Sen. Phil Haines; Assemblywoman Dawn Addiego; Assemblyman Brian Rumpf; and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly, who lost the '08 GOP primary to Myers.

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Of the two New Jersey congressional districts where Republican incumbents did not seek re-election this year, the third district in parts of Ocean, Burlington and Camden counties is arguably more Republican than the seventh district, which includes parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Union and Middlesex counties.  In District 3, Jim Saxton won 58% of the vote in 2006 and 63% in 2004; George W. Bush won with 51% in 2004.  In the 7th, Mike Ferguson nearly lost his 2006 re-election bid to Democrat Linda Stender, 49%-48%, after winning 57% in 2004; Bush won 53% four years ago.  Republicans have held the Saxton seat since 1884 and the Ferguson seat since 1956.

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Democrats have picked up a Republican House seat in New Jersey's third district, with State Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) defeating Medford Mayor Christopher Myers.  The incumbent, Republican Jim Saxton, is retiring after 24 years in Congress.  Democrats have not won this seat since 1882.

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Biotech millionaire John Crowley is still mulling a bid for the Republican nomination for Governor.  If he wins, he'd be the first Governor with no previous public sector experience since Woodrow Wilson moved from college president to Governor in 1910.  But in U.S. Senate races, the lack of political experience is more prevalent: New Jersey sent first-time candidates to the Senate in 1942, 1978, 1982 and 2000.

And if you're an extreme political junkie: if Leonard Lance wins a House seat tomorrow, he'll join a fairly elite group -- New Jersey  Congressmen who have served in both the State Senate and General Assembly.  The last ones were Bob Menendez in 1992, Jim Saxton in 1984, Harold Hollenbeck in 1976, Joseph Maraziti in 1972, and Elijah Hutchinson in 1914.

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Former Mt. Holly Mayor James B. Smith, who ran for Congress against Republican Jim Saxton three times, passed way of an apparent heart attack early this morning. Smith was Saxton's opponent in 1984 when the death of seven-term Republican Edwin Forsythe opened up the Burlington/Ocean/Camden House seat.  He defeated former State Sen. Herbert Buehler and two others in the Democratic primary, but lost to Saxton, then a two-term State Senator, by a 61%-38% margin.  Smith won 31% against Saxton in the 1988 and 1994 elections. Funeral services will be held later this week. 

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The 3rd district congressional race between Democrat John Adler and Republican Christopher Myers is a statistical dead heat, according to a Zogby International poll conducted by The Press of Atlantic City and The Richard Stockton College of New Jersey.  More than 16% of the voters poll remain undecided, with each candidate at 39%.   Adler, a State Senator from Camden County, and Myers, the Mayor of Medford, are seeking the seat of Republican Jim Saxton, who is retiring after 24 years in the House.  Republicans have held this seat since 1884.

Third district voters are also split on races for President and U.S. Senate: Barack Obama, 45%, John McCain, 44%; and Dick Zimmer, 45%, Frank Lautenberg 44%.

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Senate President Richard Codey will record an automated phone call targeting senior citizens in Ocean County on behalf of Democratic congressional candidate John Adler.  The calls will begin next week.  Adler's decision to use the popular Codey to seek senior votes comes as Republican Christopher Myers seeks to make Adler's use of a controversial budget item controlled by Codey an issue in the race for Jim Saxton's House seat.

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Democrats will pick up congressional seats of retiring Reps. Jim Saxton and Mike Ferguson as part of a national trend that will net them seven U.S. Senate seats and sixteen House seats national, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's Pindell Report, which provides independent analysis of federal and state races.

Pindell says that Democrat Frank Lautenberg will win re-election to the U.S. Senate and that Barack Obama will carry New Jersey and win its fifteen electoral votes.

"In two Republican-leaning districts, Democrats John Adler and Linda Stender are going to Congress," said Pindell. "Democrats have momentum and they're winning just about all of the marginal races."

The Pindell Report has the Senate at 58-41, and the House at 252-180.  The Senate races in Alaska, and House races in Florida, New Mexico and Kansas, remain toss-ups.

"The economy, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush combine to push Senate and House races that were toss-ups last week into the Democratic column," said Pindell.   "While the Democrats will control the White House and both houses of Congress, they won't get the 60 Senate seats they need for a filibuster-proof majority." Read More >

MEDFORD -- Former Massachusetts governor and presidential candidate Mitt Romney came to this quaint little one traffic light downtown tonight to help its mayor become a Congressman.

In a short press conference just before attending a private, $1,000 per head fundraiser for Chris Myers at a private residence in Southampton, Romney, who recently founded Free & Strong America PAC, touted Myers a kindred spirit – a fellow businessman suited to carry on the legacy of retiring Rep. Jim Saxton, who was also present.

“Chris is a person who has experience in the military sector, the private sector and the public sector,” said Romney, standing in front of a gazebo in a small park. “All three areas have given him the kind of perspective which gives him a unique opportunity to help the people of this district.”

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The race for Jim Saxton's seat in Congress is a statistical dead heat, with Republican Chris Myers leading Democrat John Adler 41%-40%, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today.  Among likely voters, Myers is ahead 44%-41%.

“Despite being out-fundraised and outspent, Myers is holding his own in the district,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This part of the state is traditionally Republican, but has been trending Democratic in recent years. Turning out the base will be the key to winning this seat.”

Barack Obama leads John McCain 46%-43% among likely 3rd district voters in a district where George W. Bush beat John Kerry by two percentage points in 2004. 

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