July 9, 2008 - 3:14pm
Lautenberg leads Zimmer in new poll; Corzine approvals low
By Matt FriedmanIncumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 49%-36%, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released today.
The poll also shows Governor Corzine approval rating at only 27%, while 40% disapprove. That’s a slight drop from last month.
The poll comes after two other recent polls from other organizations showed Lautenberg leading Zimmer by large margins, although a Rasmussen poll from early last month – just after both won their respective primaries-- showed the two in a statistical dead heat.
Broken down by gender, Lautenberg has a clear lead amongst women, besting Zimmer 55% to 29%. Zimmer, however, has the edge amongst men, with 45% to Lautenberg’s 41%. Lautenberg has the support of 85% of the state’s Democrats, while Zimmer is backed by 74% of Republicans.
Lautenberg’s favorability rating stands at 50%, while 41% of respondents had an unfavorable view. Zimmer has a favorability rating of 45%, while 35% view him unfavorably (a recent Fairleigh Dickinson poll noted, however, that Zimmer, a former three term Congressman, has little name ID).
The poll surveyed 500 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
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If: (1) Zimmer's 45% to
If: (1) Zimmer's 45% to Lautenberg’s 41% among men and (2) Zimmer's 74% among Republicans versus Lautenberg's 85% support among Dems holds until election day there is no way that Zimmer can win this.
Even Republican candidates in blue states like Maryland (I know a little bit about Maryland) typically fare better among males. And assuming that the party support is reflective upon the population of NJ at large (more registered Dems than Reps in NJ) then Lautenberg appears to have it than by slightly more than the default.
I would however like to know the current preferences of unaffiliated registered voters.
Good Issue for Dick Zimmer
Frank Lautenberg voted against FISA national security bill last year and again yesterday. He also voted against John Doe amendment--to give immunity from civil libility to those who report suspicious behavior.
The public, even in NJ, would not side with Sen. Lautenberg on these votes. But the public won't know about this issue unless Zimmer raises it in his campaign.
Unaffliated voters
Its hard to predict unaffliated voters, naturally they are not registered independant so more times than not unaffliated voters in NJ have a political preference they just havnt taken the time to send in an official registration form. In the South unaffliateds tend to trend GOP in the North they trend Dem
Unaffliated voters
Its hard to predict unaffliated voters, naturally they are not registered independant so more times than not unaffliated voters in NJ have a political preference they just havnt taken the time to send in an official registration form. In the South unaffliateds tend to trend GOP in the North they trend Dem
Republican Solution
In September, well after the 100 day filing rule, Zimmer the sure loser can drop out and Republicans would be compelled to put a name on the ballot and perhaps it might even be a Republican this time.
"A society that puts equality . . . ahead of freedom will end up with neither." ~ Milton Friedman.
Been There Done That
First Forrester, now Zimmer. Those who worked against Joe Pennacchio should be embarassed.