August 28, 2006 - 2:18pm

GOP control of the Senate not impossible

The bi-partisan consensus among New Jersey pundits seems to be that Assembly Republicans are not likely to be positioned to capture control of the lower house in 2007 -- but that while Democrats are also strongly favored to hold the Senate, GOP control -- or at least shared control -- is not impossible.

Republicans could potentially compete for Senate seats currently held by Democrats Frederick Madden (District 4), Ellen Karcher (District 12) and Paul Sarlo (District 36). They would need to win all three to win a majority, and two for a return to the shared control of 2002-03.

It would be substantially more difficult for the Republicans to compete against Senators Stephen Sweeney (District 3) and Joseph Coniglio (District 38). Democrats are also threatening to mount a strong challenge to Senator Bill Gormley (District 2), and for the seat of retiring Senator Joseph Palaia (District 11). Look for another highly competitive race in the 14th district if GOP Senator Peter Inverso retires.

GOP success will likely hinge on candidate recruitment. Their top choice in the fourth district -- if Madden doesn't seek re-election, Democrats would likely pick Assemblyman/Washington Township Mayor Paul Moriarty -- is state Administrative Law Judge George Geist, who spent twelve years in the Legislature before losing to Madden by just 63 votes in 2003. Against Karcher, Republicans want to run freshman Assemblywoman Jennifer Beck.

The strongest possible GOP contenders against Sarlo are former Assembly Majority Leader Paul DiGaetano, who left the Legislature in 2005 to run for Governor, and Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola -- but neither seem to be actively looking to run. Some Republicans list Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan as a possible candidate -- she wanted to run in 2003, but state Republicans preferred former Assemblyman John Kelly -- but she was weakened a bit by her losing bid in the '06 GOP primary for Bergen County Executive.

One interesting candidate against Sarlo would be Superior Court Judge Harold Hollenbeck, who will reach the mandatory retirement age of seventy in December 2008. Hollenbeck served as a State Senator from 1972 to 1974, and as a Congressman from 1977 to 1983 (he lost his seat to Bob Torricelli.) Hollenbeck now lives in Ridgewood -- his base was in Rutherford -- and would have to move back to South Bergen to make the race.

Comments

Paul Sarlo has $500,000 in the bank and is looking to have $700,


Paul Sarlo has $500,000 in the bank and is looking to have $700,000 by election time. Who of these possible candidates is willing to take that on when they have less than a year to raise the money?

08/28/06 2:46 pm

When you're as handsome as Paul Sarlo you don't even need money.


When you're as handsome as Paul Sarlo you don't even need money....

08/28/06 3:14 pm

Yeah, the the casual observer it appears that Kalafer and the Be


Yeah, the the casual observer it appears that Kalafer and the Bergen Cliff Hawks will pay whatever it takes to keep Sarlo on their side.

Walt

08/28/06 3:28 pm

<a href="http://enlightennj.blogspot.com/2006/08/somewhere-in-ne


Enlighten-New Jersey

has an interesting post today. I'm curious as to whether or not this could apply to any of the Democrats mentioned above.

08/28/06 4:06 pm

I always chuckle when the premise not to run against someone is


I always chuckle when the premise not to run against someone is that they have all this money, and therefore cannot be defeated.

Donovan had a 5-1 dollar advantage and lost the primary to Caliguire.

Torricelli played that game and it got him the US Senate in 00. But his world kind of unraveled. Look at Bradley in 90, there are too many instances in where incumbents obsess about funraising versus acutally building some semblance of a legislative record.

The real issue is what have they done?

Given the current conditions in 36 as it relates to Xanadu, pay for play, overdevelopment, high property taxes and the imposition of COAH, this would be a very competitive race and the incumbent will need every dime to survive.

That's to say nothing about the increase of the Sales Tax and the general feeling this trio is invisble to the average voter.

Ask Gabe Ambrosio if his ridiculous money advantage helped him against John Scott?

Money doesn't gurantee anything when you're a virtual unknown...

08/28/06 4:58 pm

NJ Dem, very insightful post. As a resident of the 36th, I enjo


NJ Dem, very insightful post. As a resident of the 36th, I enjoyed reading your analysis.

08/28/06 5:14 pm

Here we go again NJDEM, always talking about how the trio is inv


Here we go again NJDEM, always talking about how the trio is invisible when you live in California and have no basis for your statements. Do you see the letters to the editor all the time in the weeklies? Do you go to the events the "trio" are at in the Bergen part of the district every weekend? Do you know the close contact the offices have with each town on a weekly basis? Do you attend the Democratic municipal club fundraisers that the "trio" always gets to? The "trio" is in fact very hard working and the 36th District is very much in strong Democratic control. How else do you get Republican mayors endorsing their candidacy?

08/28/06 5:39 pm

Do you see how hysterical insider gets when you even question th


Do you see how hysterical insider gets when you even question the possibility his boss might lose?

rants about California, letters and club meetings?

It's almost comical....

Take a chill pill before your head explodes off your shoulders....

08/28/06 7:05 pm

The real question is whether Coniglio gets indicted for getting


The real question is whether Coniglio gets indicted for getting a $5,000 a month kickback from Bergen Pines in exchange for the line item they got in the state budget, or whether Sarlo gets indicted for getting a kickback from Carlstadt in terms of an Engineering Contract in exchange for additional state aid. Price to taxpayers for these bribes: 7% sales tax.

08/28/06 7:14 pm

I only try to debunk the ridiculous statements you make NJDEM. S


I only try to debunk the ridiculous statements you make NJDEM. Someone has to bring some level of truth to this page. And by the way, I am self-employed.

08/28/06 7:21 pm

If my commentary is ridiculous, people will ignore what is said.


If my commentary is ridiculous, people will ignore what is said. Afterall, this is an OPINION page?

I simply tried to make the point that raising vast sums of money doesn't guarantee victory. The second point was these legislators are not well known no matter how many "club meetings" they attend.

The third point what have they accomplished? Raising the Sales Tax? Property Taxes continue to explode all over the district. There's an obvious discontent with all these mega developments and all you need to do is read the letters I see in the weeklies to comprehend that reality.

They might be popular in their own backyard, but that's about it.

Stop trying to manufacture this fantasy that this is somehow a safe Democratic district when it isn't. When George Bush easily carries Wood-Ridge over Kerry, the numbers don't lie.

You seem hyper sensitive for someone who claims to be this objective observer seeking truth, justice and the American way!

08/28/06 7:52 pm

Prediction: the 2 parties spend millions of dollars and the num


Prediction: the 2 parties spend millions of dollars and the numbers stay exactly the same.

08/28/06 8:56 pm

I see a former congressional candidate being the nominee vs. Sar


I see a former congressional candidate being the nominee vs. Sarlo, and it's not Donovan.

How does Sen. Vince Micco sound??????????

first he has to lose to win. If he runs strong in 36, he's got the inside lane for the nomination.

08/28/06 11:59 pm