The Ferguson Seat: 50 Years of GOP control
By Wally EdgeMichael Ferguson's House seat has been held by Republicans since 1956, when Assemblywoman Florence Dwyer unseated incumbent Harrison Williams. Williams won a 1953 special election after the five-term incumbent, Republican Clifford Case, resigned to become President of The Fund for the Republic. Dwyer spent sixteen years in Congress, retiring in 1972. She was replaced by Republican State Senator Matthew Rinaldo, who served until his retirement in 1992. Rinaldo's successor was Robert Franks, a State Assemblyman and Republican State Chairman, who served four terms before running for the United States Senate in 2000.
Case and Williams won open U.S. Senate seats after leaving Congress. Case won in 1954, narrowly defeating Democratic Congressman Charles Howell. Williams was elected in 1958, defeating GOP Congressman Robert Kean, the grandfather of U.S. Senate candidate Thomas Kean, Jr.
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And this is a competitive seat? The past redistricting made the
And this is a competitive seat? The past redistricting made the seat even more Republican-friendly.
Well, at least NJ Dems aren't saying that Garrett's seat is competitive any more.....
And the Bush/Ferguson record has made it less Republican friendl
And the Bush/Ferguson record has made it less Republican friendly. Between Republicans who stay home and Independents who vote Democratic, this will be a close race. History records many a "safe" incumbent who was swept from office in a national wave of discontent. 2006 promises to be one of those waves.
Matthew is quite busy counting his chickens before they have hat
Matthew is quite busy counting his chickens before they have hatched.
See, Matt, I understand that. But the thing is, those instances
See, Matt, I understand that. But the thing is, those instances you're talkin' 'bout, while nice for some historical perspective, should really be treated differently, because they were different elections. Different candidates, different issues, different races. It's doable, man. Everyone always looks at the jury-riggin' done on the congressional districts, but it was done in 2002. This is four years later. And one of Fergie's supposed strengths, the relative wealth of his constituency, could work against him... the population is a mobile one, to be sure, and the people that lived there in '02 might not be there anymore. I guess we'll see on Election Day.
-BHD
Roscoe Conway - Bush won SC in 2004 by 5% and that includes Fran
Roscoe Conway - Bush won SC in 2004 by 5% and that includes Franklin, which MF doesn't have to worry about.
As for "safe" incumbents losing in wave elections - which "safe" Dems were defeated in '94? Whose was the last "safe" NJ incumbent to lose without a scandal and due to national politics?