As I launch this weekly endeavor to highlight and hopefully explain various political processes, events and phenomena that affect New Jersey, I must take a moment to express my gratitude to the publishers of politicker.com for affording me the opportunity to extend my role as an educator to a broader audience. My goal in writing this column is to bring an academic perspective to developments in New Jersey politics that will inform and challenge readers. I claim no particular inside information, and my contact with those who wield power in the state is marginal, at best. Nonetheless, I believe that I can offer readers a perspective that is often lacking in the dialogue that surrounds politics in our state.
The results of the November 6th election produced few surprises, but they do point to a fundamental problem that in many ways is more serious than the looming fiscal crisis that the state faces or any other public policy question. This problem is one of the basic self-governance and challenges the premise of our democratic system. Simply put, it is the participation or turnout rate that is expected in this year's legislative elections.
This year's turnout rate was estimated at 31 percent, one of the lowest in the state's history. Such a low turnout, raises questions regarding how legitimate and representative our government really is. Political Scientists offer many explanations for low voter turnout, and I believe several of them apply to New Jersey.
One explanation for low voter turnout is the lack of competitive elections. As far as the legislative elections were concerned, this was clearly the case in 36 of the 40 districts. In the Senate races, the three competitive races resulted in the defeat of three incumbent candidates. In the 37 other Senate races, the candidate representing the party that held the seat previously retained the seat. Thus, in spite of the record turnover in the Senate, the Democrats enjoyed a net gain of one seat. In the Assembly the story was pretty much the same, with the Republicans enjoying a net gain of one seat. Thus, for voters in these non-competitive districts, there was little reason to participate.
A second factor that depressed turnout is a lack of information that voters are provided about the election. This is an indictment of the way in which campaigns are conducted and covered by the media. New Jersey is not located in a single media market, but is divided between two of the largest markets in the country. As a result, television coverage of New Jersey politics and elections is limited and running commercials is very expensive. As a result, we get little information about candidates' positions and an abundance of attack ads.
In addition, we lack a state-wide newspaper, though the Gannett chain covers much of the state, and the Star Ledger has expanded its circulation in recent years. This means that coverage of local events is fair, but statewide issues are often given little attention. And while there is some coverage of local politics and elections, the amount of coverage provided by local newspapers is also rather sparse. It takes a good deal of effort to be an informed voter in New Jersey, and unfortunately fewer and fewer of our fellow citizens are making that effort. For many individuals, a lack of information translates into a lack of confidence in their ability to assess the candidates running for office.
A third factor is structural and includes the sheer number of elections we conduct. Our state elections are conducted in odd-years, and federal elections occur in even years. This means there is an election every year in New Jersey. When you couple this with the number of local elections we conduct, such as municipal, school board and special districts, it is easy to see that participating in the electoral process requires one to continually follow politics to feel confident in one's judgment.
A final explanation, which runs counter to the previous three mentioned, is that most voters do not feel threatened by the political system and are content, therefore they have no compelling reason to vote. According to this notion, people participate in politics when they feel that their interests are at risk by the individuals or parties controlling government. (This is the basic reason that politicians use negatives ads, which are designed to "scare" voters so that they will vote against the individual who is the target of the negative ad.) The vast majority of citizens fail to recognize the impact of governmental policies on their lives and hence not feeling threatened, they see no need to participate.
What can be done to encourage greater participation? That is the subject of future columns.
Joseph R. Marbach, Ph.D., is Acting Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences and an Associate Professor of Political Science at Seton Hall University.
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The outcome of your observations...political demographics
1. The Know Little or Nothings: They either stay home thinking their individual vote is insignificant or they actually show up and mindlessly vote the party line.
2. The Know a Littles: They know enough about NJ politics to be disturbed. They feel the state has been on the wrong track. They may connect that to a political process where elections are winner take all contests between pay-to-play organizations doing insider trading. These citizens might just stay away like The Know Nothings. They just don't see an inspiring choice between two political gangs competing to serve themselves and their cronies at the public money trough.
3. The Know Mores (but aren't patronage beneficiaries): They either despair, stew and stay away or show up to vote for someone -- anyone--who appears not bought and sold by County Bosses.
Of course, chronic despair can be trumped by acute hysteria. But the last time that happened, outraged NJ voters dumped Florio for Whitman.
Low turnout is because there is only one party
You reference that voters have "no compelling reason to vote" and therefore do not participate in the process. The reason they have no reason to vote, however, is because there is limited distinction between the parties. Republicans have become very similar to Democrats in their habits and voting that there is often little distinction between the two.
We have a one party system in New Jersey, most in Trenton are self interested big government spenders (they just sometimes disagree on what to spend on and how to spend). Hence the voters don't vote because it doesn't matter who gets elected from either party because they will act the same after being elected.
Low turnon
My take on voter turnout. People are lazy.
It requires effort to learn the canditates and the issues.
It requires effort to take the time to get to the polls.
It requires effort to find your sample ballot in the pile of mail and read.
What I see is lots of people out for instant gratification. Games, fun, vacation. Not political canditates and issues. Shame on you for not educating yourself and voting.
Apathy and Arrogance
For to long in this state the people have been subjected to the arrogance of the very representatives who claim to serve them. This recent election offers a perfect example of this. The bonding for stem-cell research was defeated, clear and simple. But instead of honoring the feelings of the citizens of this state, Corzine is still committed to spending this money.
This example it just one of the numerous examples that can be cited. Two years ago we elected folks to go to Trenton and cut spending, pay down the debt that threatens to bankrupt New Jersey, and finally control corruption. Instead, we get more spending, more debt, and national headlines as the US attorney indicts a slew of these people who are suppose to be the best the state of New Jersey has to offer.
Now what will happen, the voter will just become apathetic to another election. It is simple, they don't listen to me, so why should I waste my time.
"The only man who never makes a mistake is the man who never does anything."
--Theodore Roosevelt--
Low voter turnout....
We put a big emphasis on voter turnout as an indicator of good goverment and the rubostness of our democracy. However, countries that have greater voter turnout have not proven to have either. We have also made it a priority to register as many people as we can without regard to whether they have any interest in being apart of the poltical decision making process or not -- i.e. motor-voter.
It is more important to have on informed electorate making informed decisions. Our founding fathers had it right in creating a republic and not a democray where those that are informed and have an interest in public policy make those decisions.
We believe that our market system works because people who have an interest make informed decisions. Most of those decisions are made with a small minority "voting" with their dollars.
I believe that we should make it more difficult to register to vote and easier to vote. That way we ensure that those who really do not care or want to be part of the political decision making process are not included in our conclusions on elections. We should make sure that those who want to register can register and every effort should be make to ensure that those that want to vote can do so easily.
Statewide newspaper - non-issue
How many states do have a "statewide" paper? With the Star-Ledger and the Philadelphia Inquirer on Sunday, the state is covered.
We still have good regional papers in the Record (Bergen), The Times (Trenton) and Asbury Park Press. If you wish, Easton, PA's Express is good for western Jersey.
The low turnout may be seen in the gerrymandering that favors incumbents. Also, I would like to see a study of the press and it's endorsement of incumbents.
Interesting note; a claim of 31% turnout is different from the 25% that voted on the propositions.
bitaryo is correct.
There are more reporters who cover state government in Trenton than any other capitol, including Sacramento. At least this was the case as recently as 2004. Whether anyone is paying attention to what they're writing is a very different question.
Also, safe districts may suppress voter interest, but when Alan Rosenthal developed his map-making rationale, he advised that safe districts were a positive influence on the stability of a Legislature. The more stable the institution, the more effective a check on the executive. Would the opposite be true of maps without safe districts?
This article is about as exciting...
as a gray Toyota Camry with no options. To write for this site you gotta have some spice. These elections had some good moments, including a liberal elitist state senator from posh posh Monmouth County pretending to be Farmer Betty in overalls, another State Senator with a massive rug on his head being summoned in the dark of the night to Boss Codey's house for a secret meeting where he was given the facts of life, a state Assemblyman thinking giving to an insane political cult was a great way to win over Jewish voters, a Reverend whose favorite words were "I Love Ya!" being carted away etc. I mean common Dr. Joe spare us the drab analysis, if people missed this show they'll never be tuned in and maybe they ought not to be.
Stability v continuity
A compromise would be the staggering of the Senate terms ala the US Senate.
Safe seats create, also, indolence. The legislature spends more time posturing and no incentive to accomplish anything.
Well-written, Dr. Marbach. I
Well-written, Dr. Marbach.
I agree that the absence among voters of feeling greatly-threatened can indeed be equated with a wet blanket on voters' motivation to turn out.
I would add what I believe is the most important factor: People feeling that their vote does not have a <i>positive, consequential impact</i> on what government ultimately does, and most importantly, on the <b>quality of their daily lives.</b>
Too often, elected officials indeed do <u>not</u> deliver on the promises they made as a candidate seeking votes.
And that serves as a serious disincentive for voters to invest in learning which candidate is best. Candidate "Full of sh*t" or Candidate "Full of More Sh*t" is what many voters consider elections to be about. And while I have been committed -- and still am -- to <i>engaging</i> citizens to participate meaningfully in the civic life in their community, I don't blame voters for not showing up.
Pay-to-play, in particular, has an incredibly-pernicious effect on the health of our democracy. When some mega-hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars infrastructure project is proposed -- and the motivation is truthfully more based on the economic self-interest of some construction firm with their ties to firms providing PR, architectural, engineering, and financial bond house services and their <i>political influence</i> as big donors, and the thing is built, and it winds up not serving the "public interest" when Judgement Day finally arrives, citizens get pi*ssed off.
I believe -- generally -- citizens haven't been well-served in our political system for years, and that after the combined events of the assassinations of JFK, RFK and MLK, Vietnam, the gas lines, Watergate and, up to the Hostage Crisis in Iran, from 1963 all the way up through 1980, citizens' belief in the power of their voice had sustained a collective sucker punch so potent (much like the proverbial frog in water that gradually turns up to a boiling level), their motivate to participate in civic life just plummeted and has been there at that low level ever since.
Or, call it, perhaps, "Bowling Alone."
I believe that the power of the Internet is changing this, to some degree, and does have great promise. But I am concerned that its potential seems to have been directed most successfully in single campaigns for presidential candidates -- as opposed to re-establishing a sustainable, local civic culture.
For it is through such a local ethos of civic consciousness that we can rebuild the civic health of our democracy across this country.
I cannot help but cite the adage, "all politics is local."
With all due respect
With all due respect to the Distinguished Professor, I must say i am disappointed in the laziness of his explanation. Even if his premise that most districts are one party entities that disincline voter particpation by very nature is correct, how do we account for low turnout, especially of that during the primary cycle, even in the districts where there were heated inter-party primaries? If voters are such ideological simpletons who follow partylines like lemmings thereby vicariously discouraging anyone who might disagree from voting, wouldnt it go accordingly that in-district conflicts would be just the spice to encourage otherwise disinterested folks to become involved, if only for a small flash?
Maybe I'm a simpleton myself, but maybe, just maybe, people arent voting not because that are disenchanted by possible one party strongholds, but rather out of DISGUST for a culture that is depicted (we can argue whether rightfully or woefully later) as inherently broken. Frustration and disgust arent always things that can be neatly intellectualized or categorized but they sure as heck are tangible in the streets with the average citizen.