Monmouth/Gannett poll: Obama leads by 17 points in N.J.
By EditorBarack Obama has a 17-point lead over John McCain in New Jersey, 55%-38% among likely voters, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released this morning. Obama had an 8-point lead in the same poll last month.
“We have reached the tipping point in this race, with nearly half of the state’s voters saying they are very sure they will vote for Obama,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, who few Obama voters daid hey were willing to change their minds before Election Day. “At this point, it would take an October surprise of astronomical proportions to turn New Jersey from blue to red.”
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Wow.
That's the only thing I can say.
All the Repubs can thank Palin for this.
oh please...
NJ was going to go for Obama anyway. Palin has very little to do with this in NJ. Her real effect will be tested in states like Ohio, VA, Colorado, etc.
Right...
The states where Obama is up multiple points. Ah!
Something fishy here!
This poll is unbelievable. Who did they poll? 80% of Democrats, 10% Republicans and 10% independents? I am going to wait for the judgment day on Nov. 4th.
Look at the sample
This poll overstates the chosen one's support. The sample had 42% Dems and 34% unaffiliated/independents when the registration numbers in the state show only 34% of voters are Dems and 46% are unaffiliated/independent. Although they sampled 26% Republicans (where actual registration is 20%), the extent to which they oversampled Democrats - and undersampled unaffiliated/independents - places the results in the highly questionable category.
Media Misleading for Obama
There is gambling going on in here - say it aint so.
Media Midleading for Obama
There is gambling going on in here - say it aint so.
Media Misleading for Obama
There is gambling going on in here - say it aint so.
thinking out loud
If this poll and the other N.J. poll out today (+23 for Obama) are averaged, then Obama would have a 20 point lead in the state, nearly three times the winning margin of Kerry over Bush in 2004. 2004 had a whole different set of political circumstances to it -- 9/11 hitting the state and the country, Bush coming to N.J. a handful of times, and two very different candidates. But I think the time has come to ask whether Sen. McCain isn't the strong general election candidate that some Republicans consider him to be. Empirical evidence is showing either that is the case or that Obama is considerably stronger than Kerry in terms of his candidacy (the latter seems particularly likely). Biden is the quiet winner of all of this; he's made voters feel secure in supporting Obama, even though Palin has gotten most of the headlines. And it's not just N.J. where Obama is doing better than Kerry in '04: N.C., Indiana, Pa., Virginia, Colorado, and more have all seen dramatic shifts in polling to the Democrat.
McCain done in NJ
No comment really needed.
McCain done in NJ
No comment really needed.