Doherty's out
By Wally EdgeBelmar Councilman Matthew Doherty has decided not to seek a State Assembly seat in 2007. Doherty, the husband of Corzine Deputy Chief of Staff Maggie Moran, ran a strong race in 2005 against GOP incumbents Sean Kean and Steve Corodemus. He had been expected to run again.
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*** Too bad, he was the Dems best chance for a pick-up in the 1
***
Too bad, he was the Dems best chance for a pick-up in the 11th.
I can't see anyone coming close to beating Kean for the Senate, but it seems to me that the GOP candidates for Assembly aren't particularly strong.
A well-financed effort could have picked up one or both seats; but that seems less likely now.
***
This only tells me internal polling shows Democrats losing the g
This only tells me internal polling shows Democrats losing the generic vote in this swing district.
With Corzine's favorables tenuous at best, look for the GOP despite there own incompetence to pick-up anywhere from 3 to 7 assembly seats and no GOP incumbent in either house will be seriously challenged.
The Democrats will be on the defensive in 2007, no question about that....
I see it being closer to 3 than 7 NJDem. These districts are pr
I see it being closer to 3 than 7 NJDem. These districts are pretty much drawn on party lines. Right now, there are 3 (maybe 4 vulnerable Dem seats in the Assembly) and only 1 in the Senate. But I agree that we won't likely see any Reps on the defensive in '07.
Doherty's 2005 challenge was deceptively weak despite the close
Doherty's 2005 challenge was deceptively weak despite the close vote on Election Day. Doherty and Reilly basically had every advantage besides incumbency and still lost. It's a testimony to what bad candidates they made (along with the incumbents taking the race seriously) that they lost that race. Reilly was an utter disaster and I think Doherty looked great in comparison, but he was a weak candidate as well. Had the Democrats picked two moderately popular local officials they may have picked off both seats.
*** Aetius: an examination of past elections would show you tha
***
Aetius: an examination of past elections would show you that the 11th had never been competitive before 2005. Reilly and Doherty raised a tremendous amount of money for non-incumbents (and did so transparently, posting all their contribution records on their website), ran one of the best organized campaigns of that year, and got pretty damn close.
However, Kean is too strong in Wall (the largest GOP stronghold in the 11th) to be beaten in this District in the near future. Corodemus is vulnerable, perhaps why he's retiring rather then face another tough race.
But without a credible challenger to Kean at the top of the ticket, Doherty may be right to take a pass at this time.
In '09 when there's a lot of Corzine money to be spent and no Kean to run against seems to be the best time to run and win an Assembly seat.
***