Bergen Post-Mortem

As the dust settles in Bergen County and the political parties spin the election results, you can expect to hear the Republicans talking a lot about Rutherford.

It’s where Republican challenger John Hipp trampled Democratic incumbent Mayor Bernadette McPherson -- beating her by a margin of 2-1, and tying the council 3-3, with two Republican candidates ousting incumbent Democrats.

Republicans also point to mayoral takeovers or gained council seats in several of the county’s 70 municipalities – most prominently Hillsdale, where they beat incumbent Democratic Mayor Dennis S. Deutsch. They also gained control of councils in the traditionally Republican towns of Northvale, Glen Rock, Montvale, South Hackensack and Hasbrouck Heights.

Meanwhile, Democrats made progress in five towns, gaining a mayoral seat or control of the council in Oradell, Bogota, Bergenfield, Westwood and Waldwick.

Bergen County Republican Chairman Rob Ortiz, who’s held the position since July, credits an unlikely source for his strategy: Democratic Chairman Joe Ferriero. In this context, Rutherford takes on added significance as one of the first towns that Ferriero turned blue in 1999.

“I can’t speak to how the party used to operate. I can only speak to how I envision us taking back the county, it’s the same way as the Ferriero model,” said Ortiz. “I plan on taking back town after town.”

Republicans claim that last night’s results prove that the struggling, financially strapped party has momentum on its side, noting a promising performance by 76-year-old Mike Guarino, an under-funded long-shot candidate against powerful state Senator Paul Sarlo. Guarino, a former Democrat who ran a shoe-string campaign, managed to get 43% of the vote.

In Rutherford, the controversial EnCap development was, along with property taxes, a major force in McPherson’s defeat. It was also the main theme of Guarino’s campaign.

That, say some Republicans, should have the state party kicking itself for not throwing any money at the race. They’re also upset at the county party’s past Chairman, Guy Talarico, for spending $400,000 on a primary race in June that could have been spent on against Democrats.

“Unfortunately, the history of the Republican party is that we wind up abandoning these candidates,” said Republican consultant Thom Ammirato, who managed Guarino’s campaign. “You spend tens of thousands of dollars launching this product, then you abandon this product and start with someone else.”

But while the financial disparity between the two candidates is huge – Sarlo had about $700,000 in the bank earlier in the campaign – the incumbent didn’t spend much of that money to win reelection. Instead, he gave a big chunk of his funds to more competitive races, sending only about $50,000 on his own campaign. That’s in contrast to 2003, when Sarlo spent approximately $1 million in a competitive race against Republican John Kelly, and won with 54% of the vote.

Democrats say that off-year elections are Republicans’ high water mark, and that they’re not particularly troubled if this is the best the Republicans can do.

“They could have spent money and expanded those numbers exponentially, but there was no need to,” said Joe Ferriero of Sarlo’s campaign. “If anything it demonstrated smart leadership to not waste money to drive up those numbers.”

Sarlo spokesman Chris Eilert said that the anti-incumbent wave in Rutherford likely suppressed some of Sarlo’s support in that town as well, accounting for what look like Sarlo’s modest numbers.

“This is a district that one cycle ago still had Republican representation, and we’re very pleased with our results,” said Eilert. “It’s a very solid win and it’s clearly a mandate.

Republicans pointed to the freeholder races as an improvement from last year, with Republican candidates coming within about 11,000 votes of winning a seat on the all Democratic board. But Democrats note that Republicans usually fare better in off-year elections like this one. Indeed, in the last off year election – in 2003 -- Republican Lisa Randall managed to win a seat, while the other two Republican candidates came within a few thousand votes of the Democrats.

Elsewhere in the county, Republicans managed to hold on to all three legislative seats in district 39 by a comfortable margin, despite a last minute ad blitz by Democrats.

Nor was Democratic Assemblyman Bob Gordon haunted by the ghost of state Sen. Joe Coniglio, who’s the target of a federal investigation alleged influence peddling. Gordon managed to win easily over Republican Robert Colletti.

One Democrat does have something to worry about, however. Although he was never at risk of defeat by Republicans, Assemblyman Gordon Johnson took a dip relative to his running mate, Valerie Vainieri Huttle. In 2005, Johnson had about 200 votes more than Huttle– this year he’s a little over 1,200 votes behind her. There’s speculation that he could be dropped from the ticket so as not to be vulnerable to a primary challenge from a candidate allied with Ferriero.

Johnson acknowledged that the numbers were troubling, and said it could be chalked up to his donations to Lyndon LaRouche.

“It does concern me, yes, but I also believe that Valerie is becoming more popular in the district, so that’s also a factor in there,” said Johnson. “It just means to me that I’ll have to work hard to regain the confidence of those who I may have lost because of this coming to light, and I intend to do that.”