The race for State Senator in District 2 is a Toss-Up, while Nicholas Asselta and Ellen Karcher could be headed for defeat, according to a new PoliticsNJ.com Battleground '07 analysis. READ
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I hope someone saves this list
So that the GOP can give themselves a swift kick in the ass when they realize all these so-called safe Democratic seats were truly at risk.
I’m not really convinced
I’m not really convinced that the 8th will be part of this potential "south Jersey" sweep, but LDs 1 & 2 probably are at least in the "leans D" column at this point. Also, being that there are no incumbents in either of these Assembly seats, I see it being a sweep one way or another.
As for LDs 11 & 12, I’m not surprised to see all of these seats as toss-ups or in the APP...err I mean R column.
Karcher = Codey = Garbage Legislature
If Karcher wins, Codey stays senate president. This means spending continues out of control, taxes keep getting jacked up, debt skyrockets, nothing gets done about property taxes or government corruption, the Turnpike and Parkway get tolls jacked up, and trash like Bryant and James stay on important committees, and Coniglio chairs the committee overseeing ethics. Beck winning means one more vote for changing a failed and disgusting legislative leadership in Trenton. People in district 12 hopefully undrstand this reality. Is Ambrosia-tard here? Go run for office in Colts Neck or something would you? And nice letter to the editor to the APP. It was really good. Now write something incredibly stupid and call Declan, "O-Scamlon" for the 4,000th time.
Karcher
I think Karcher will win and why shouldn't she? She's one of the good guys and a vote for reform.
LD 1 and 2 WILL Be Democrat
Asselta is falling fast in the First District. He is looking and acting like a defeated candidate. His Union support is drying up , his Congressman " Friend" LoBiondo has abandoned him and he is getting no help from his lightweight running mates. His margin of defeat will only get larger over the next 12 days. Whelan has led since day one in the LD 2 and there is no reson ot think that will change in the next 12 days. McCoullough has hit his peak at 40%. South Jersey will control the State for the next 4 years.
Karcher = Status Quo, No?
How will reform ever come if Karcher keeps putting people like Dick Codey in leadership positions who won't let any of the reforms she supports pass? It's her most important vote - for leadership of the Legislature - and she votes for someone who kills everything she says she wants to accomplish. She may or may not be "one of the good guys", but her most important vote empowers people who screw the suburbs. If she really wants to help the FBI, she should be wearing a wire in the SAenate Democrat caucus.
Greenstein now back to leans..Baroni arrow to safe
I'd like to thank Common Sense America...
And Seema Singh...
The Assembly race is still anyone's guess though, people ticket split, but she's not as safe as Baroni has gotten. Nothing is going to be taken for granted though.
If I'm Jen Beck's campaign I'm praying to god the next 12 days go well and gotv is excellent...honestly who thought ellen karcher's seat was going to lean republican?
Karcher
Like her OLD MAN useless and a crook!!!!!!!!
A vote for reform
Karcher voted to reform taxes right through the roof. She voted to reform dual office holding so that only her fellow legislators who have abused the system can keep doing it. She reformed financial disclosure by reporting her Christmas tree income three years late.
One of the good guys, or one of the good ol' boys?
1,2,8,12
Will have Republican Senators.
Nick's poll numbers are close and his grass roots and ethnic attachments will pull him through.
Sonny will win mostly because of his township support and people in that area are tired of on-going AC corruption and resent Camden's influence over their Whelan.
Phil wins handily simply based on the fact he continues to have solid support among R's and D's. The fact that Camden purchased a tired and corrupt old man in Fran Bodine to be their champion was their first of many mistakes.
Beck wins due to Karcher's hypocritical nature and above the working class attitude. Beck has a solid record and tremendous work ethic. Karcher won because Bennett was very, very, very, very flawed.
As far as Assembly goes...
I predict a D sweep in 1 and 2.
8th will once again be solid Republican - recent land use scandal and massive network buy will bury the Dems.
Declan and Mike win in the 12th.
Unfortunately it is not a real change - and won't be until redistricting.
Ist & 2nd will remain Republican.
Everyone knows that the state Democrats are not the answer in pulling the state out of a 4 Billion dollar hole.
Let the corrupt politicans raid the casino and tourism industries in the 1st and 2nd Districts will kill the south jersey economy.
If we are looking for the Camden & State Democrats as an answer to south jersy problems.....THEY are 4 BILLION IN DEBT NOW.....and will steal from our districts more than they already are now.
Atlantic City and the Shore towns residents will not the the Democratic wolves ruin our tourism based economy!!!!!
Dems will win in the 12th
Beck and the Monmouth Republicans have sunk to a new low in attacking a woman who risked her own safety to fight corruption. Declon's scam company and Beck's driving record + lobbying deals + outright lying will tip the voters to the Democrats no matter who will be Senate President or Speaker.
Only one fiscal conservative
in the First, and that's Van Drew. He lowered the property tax rate every year for 10 years as mayor, then had the same impact as freeholder. His record in the Assembly caucus has been advocating moderation of the spending that others have sought.
The voters of his county and his district know Jeff's fiscal record, so calling him a taxman is ringing completely hollow. Why not try something a little more original-- work for those consultant fees. Been there, done that in past races where he's gone on to win by record margins.
Plus, the man responsible for Republican campaigns for the entire United States House of Representatives-- a Congressman from fricking Okiefanokie-- has just stuck his nose into a race for a seat in the state legislature in South Jersey.
And before that, the former mayor of 9/11 and current frontrunner for his party's presidential nomination did the same.
If this doesn't tell you that the fear of God has been put into the GOP by the dentist from Dennis, then you just might be a redneck who actually believes that the polls in the First District are anywhere near even.
I suspect you're a little smarter than that, because you've wisely predicted both Assembly seats in the First will remain Democratic. I think we all know enough about the district's past performance to know that when your prediction comes to pass, it will be because of significant Van Drew coattails.
StopDemCorruption
Stopdemcorruption, I appreciate the gesture of copying my id, but get your own damn id.
District 36 will be close, but...
With no recruitment, financial or tactical support, the BCRO and NJGOP have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory because they didn't believe they could compete in 36.
Hell all they have are the issues on their side. Heaven forbid we try to win on those. The money scared them away. Now it's probably too late.
Writing off District 36 will come back to haunt them.
Laughing gas in dist. 1
Only a Democrat could call Van Drew a fiscal conservative. He votes for tax hikes, massive debt, and a 50% spending increase, and sides with Joe Roberts to shut down the casinos in order to make sure the biggest tax hike can't be used to pay down debt.
If his influence on his caucus has been for moderation, one can only shudder at the thought of what fiscal schemes could possibly make the actual outcome appear moderate by comparison.
Fiscal conservative Van Drew? Sounds like the dentist has been passing around the laughing gas in district 1.
NJ Dems are Corrupt
I have had this id since the creation of this new forum last year and have been posting as such this past year (lost my previous id because lost password).
I have seen your name, created after mine, many times and found it humorous that you either copied me or were simply of the same mind-set.
Either way, There should be more people not less pointing out the failings of the Dem party. Get a grip.
You don't know nuthin...
...about birthin no babies, Ms. Scarlet.
"Only a Democrat could call Van Drew a fiscal conservative."
Actually, that's 100 percent false. Try again, but first talk to Christie Whitman, Jack Collins, Donnie D. and Chuck Haytaian about the awards they have given him for his record on property taxes.
And before you reveal yourself to be a grade-schooler who doesn't remember them, they happen to be the last Republicans with a statewide profile.
School time
CSNJ, your intricate knowledge of NJ politics is very impressive, and thanks for teaching me about those obscure Republican political figures. I understand now that they must be who Democrats hold up as models of fiscal conservatism.
But I have some questions that perhaps only your superior political knowledge can answer. Did any of your four heroes of fiscal conservatism hold state office after 2001? No? So that would mean that Van Drew didn’t get any alleged awards from them in, oh, the last 6 years or so, right?
Did anything of note happen in those 6 years? You know, like Van Drew being elected to the Legislature? I think so, since everything I mentioned in my post and that have not been refuted by learned experts like you, are all part of his legislative record.
To politically underinformed people like me, it seems that your argument depends on going back in time more than 6 years and ignoring every single minute of Van Drew’s time in the Legislature.
Let me prevail upon your knowledge of fiscal conservatism to answer a few questions about it. Was it fiscally conservative to support well over a billion dollars in new debt? Was it fiscally conservative to increase the income tax? Was it fiscally conservative to vote against repealing the health club tax? Was it fiscally conservative to raise taxes on health insurance, energy, and businesses? Was it fiscally conservative to vote with the dual officeholding Hudson County Democrats to stop the state comptroller from auditing their cities?
If you can’t answer those questions, I guess I’ll have to track down Chuck Haytaian and ask him.
I think I hear the bell – guess school’s out for the day.